Talentism

17

The definition of “increasing productive capacity” is not a timeless definition. It is a definition that I believe fits our particular place and time in an advanced but structurally flawed economic system. As I have written, we are entering the creative age, where the ability to commercialize (as in “ship”) creative capacity will be the single greatest driving factor in sustainable economic success. Therefore unlike previous economic ages (agrarian, machine and knowledge), there is an alignment between an engaged, wise and connected citizenry and the needs of the commercial domain in order to achieve success. When what is right in order for the society to increase its general measures of health (lower crime, higher standards of living, lower barriers to individual fulfillment based on class, race, gender or sexual orientation and an increasing capacity to understand the consequences of our actions) is aligned with what is right for the primary drivers of the economy (lower transaction costs due to increase trust and shared meaning, lower cycle times to creative commercialization for increased speed of organizational learning, increased competition due to decreased cost of entry into a market, increased access to talent investors as the ability to individualize talent delivery matches organizational ability to commercialize on that talent), then what the company needs to do well reinforces what the society needs to increase fairness, economic justice, representation and engagement of the populace. So increasing productive capacity is good for the society, individual and corporation.

16

There needs to be a running dialogue about the overall purpose of education, and in absence of that conversation explorations of education’s deficiencies are little more than meaningless critical analyses. Let me propose for the purposes of this discussion that education exists to increase the productive capacity of the society. Some propose that the purpose of education is to expand the general happiness of the individual but I believe that happiness is a purely personal endeavor and not the domain of the state (which invests heavily in education) or society as a whole (which benefits from happiness, but cannot predictably create the conditions for it, as works by the likes of Frankl have shown). Formal education exists to expand the ability of people to produce, and in the creative age productivity is aligned with the individual’s natural desire for place, permanence and individual expression. For the purposes of this conversation, I also assume an interconnectedness between all the individuals in a society, such that productivity cannot be maximized if the society is not composed of “wise, connected and emotionally aware agents in an open civil society where production of value is assessed on the basis of true cost and sustainability.” Lance’s point is an excellent one, and I agree with him. One can view the purpose of education as productive capacity through the lens of civil society, culture, social systems, individual fulfillment or even through Maslow’s hierarchy. My point is that in the creative age, those lenses are all converging such that it will not be possible to achieve excellence in one without achieving excellence in all.

15

Capital preservation is no longer a reliable method of opening, winning and sustaining new markets. The commercialization of human ingenuity is increasingly the path to better returns (both in growth and cost reduction). And when innovation becomes ever more important experience and education become less predictive of success. K-12 and university education systems are focusing on short-term measures of highly static skills sets: ability to read and comprehend simple information at a basic level; ability to use basic computation mechanics, elementary methods of communication and a cursory knowledge of history and literature. As Sir Ken said in the video I posted earlier  “(In our world) creativity is as important as literacy.” Unfortunately for us all, the entire education system is geared towards producing better machine-age workers on a farming-sensitive schedule. But even machine-age companies are changing their structures to compete in this new world where the creative is as important as the literate (witness what GE is doing with Ecomagination). As I said before, the education system is assuming that the world needs more investment bankers and academics, both notoriously difficult positions to achieve (and both of increasingly questionable value in a world that is creating as much as it is managing, moving and  measuring). None of these skills is important in adding and / or creating value in the corporate environment of the future.

14

As we have explored before, experience and education are decreasingly effective as means of determining whether an individual will be able to produce a suitable amount of value for the investment required (ROI). When the game was capital preservation (the basis of most risk adverse corporate policies) it made sense to homogenize the risk profile of any potential hire by proxying your decisions to the deans of admissions of prestigious academic institutions or to the hiring managers in other organizations which experienced consistent economic success or had a good brand. So a person attending Princeton and rising through the ranks at GE is going to be less of a risk than a person who walks off the street having barely graduated high school. The Ivy leaguer most likely has the analytical skills needed for most machine and information age management and product development, and they likely have the bland professional demeanor that clients / customers need to feel comfortable doing business with your organization, since most capital used in buying transaction was concentrated in the hands of people who were bland themselves. Whether a hire or promotion can really produce value or not was (and is) secondary to whether the output and the behaviors of the individual employee were predictable and safe.

13

For all the formalized systemization of business analysis (starting with Fredrick Taylor, traveling through Drucker and moving through Porter and Hammer, amongst others), business is still much more art than science. This is incredibly discomforting for all the MBAs that have been drilled in case method and six sigma. But the simple fact is that in business people are given titular power in a hierarchical, militaristic structure where the relative influence of the position is predicated on the individual’s ability to accurately predict the future, which as we all know, is much more art than science. I used to think that elevation was based on ability to execute ever larger tasks of ever greater value with decreasing amounts of waste, developing more complex and effective teams and influencing key constituencies to achieve ever greater levels of output, but I have long since given that up as being too Pollyannaish. Over the many years of participating in large organizations, I have come to the decision that the people who elevate other people are making a bet: this one is going to be able to predict the future better: what we should create for which markets, and who should be a part of the team to make that happen. All of it is about predicting the future, which is tough, because humans are notoriously bad at this mission-critical activity. As Sir Ken said in the video I posted “Nobody has a clue what will be happening in five years time… the unpredictability of (the future) is extraordinary.” Remember, this is a guy who got knighted because he spent a lot of time predicting the future accurately (specifically how society would require different ways of educating students), at a conference attended by many of the top minds in the world. None of them would confidently make predictions for what the future would look like two years out. And yet managers are asked to make those types of guesses all the time. It takes years for someone to become fully comfortable inside the average large corporation, and it takes years to bring products to markets and see whether they will take. So the person you are elevating in the corporate hierarchy today is being held accountable for making the right decisions in a world where the sheer amount and velocity of data makes most of the decisions merely educated guesses. And since the people who make the decisions about who should occupy these ever higher levels of control are as genetically hamstrung as the people they so elevate, those king makers (and their agents in the recruiting and HR departments), look for convenient short-hands that will reduce the risk associated with the hiring or promotion of that individual. The most common shorthands are experience and education. And this is where all the trouble starts.

12

Unleashing the inherent creative potential of human beings, reducing the power and presence of structures that incentivize people to produce waste and destruction as a necessary output of their production, changing the way businesses are valued to encourage them to invest more in creating knowledgeable, wise and constructive free agents in open markets (both internal and external).. this will hopefully be the legacy of Talentism. Obviously this is massive change on a global level. Such change can seem daunting, perhaps even so grandiose as to be unworthy of our attention. But I believe that we can start having an impact on the corporate system to bring this new vision into being, and I believe that the first step happens in the recruiting department.

11

Nothing I am saying here isn't understood by every business person who reads it. Growth means innovation. Cost control will increase profits (recent record profits by many large companies can testify to that), but at a certain point you have to grow or die. Innovation is the key to growth. Companies will need access to a certain type of talented individual (or group of individuals) in order to be able to continue to grow at the rates that they have in the past. Again, structural advantages (brand, access to capital, switching costs, etc.) will be decreasingly important, as those advantages are based on capital and information advantages (also known as information asymmetry) which are fast disappearing. Being able to attract the right talent, rapidly commercialize the outputs of that talent and extend the power of the talent investor through increasing the reach, value and velocity of information in their social networks will be the new advantage. This will require new thinking, approaches, processes and skill sets throughout the corporation, but most of all in HR. I predict that by 2020 we will see the first signs that finance is fighting to get a seat at the table and HR is the de facto control agent in corporate decision making. This will involve a wholesale replacement of the standard HR department with new “Talent Investment” and “Talent Operations” departments, just as HR replaced the old personnel department. The days of 'payroll and picnics' will come to an end.

10

Innovation will continue to increase in value as capital continues to commoditize. This trend will continue for the foreseeable future. The factors that are driving this (western policies that value wealth over work, the corresponding accumulation of capital in private individual’s hands who have enough disposable income to take high risk investing to new extremes, the application of that capital in corporate markets as a way to seek more predictable returns, demographic changes that shrink the available labor pool, education challenges which will continue to diminish the inherent capacity of people to add value in innovation-dependent environments, the increase of free agency as a corporate employment standard, the decreasing cost of infrastructures needed to create and commercialize at the mico-transaction level, increasing information transparency where IP rights and brand identity decreasingly have leverage in customer buying decisions and the inevitable march towards health care in the U.S. which will be decoupled from employers which will further drive free agency employment conditions) are not likely to diminish in any foreseeable future, and these factors will drive the continued value of innovation and the decreasing value of access to capital.

9

At the same time that innovation is growing in importance capital is decreasing in importance. It makes sense: there has been an unprecedented globalization of wealth creation and access to capital sources. Aggregation of wealth in the hands of people who get paid for getting the cash to move quickly (otherwise known as increasing the velocity of capital) means that the allowance for risk in capital markets has dramatically risen (so much so that the Fed is starting to look at the lending practices of banks in LBOs since the terms of the deals are so favorable to the borrower). It’s simply an economic law of averages: more money chasing a relatively stable number of deals means that the bets have to be bigger and the number of potential deals increased by looking for other avenues for deploying capital (the present LBO craze). So at the same time that creativity is becoming ever more important to wealth generation, capital is becoming decreasingly expensive (as measured by the total cost of acquisition and maintenance of that capital). Further, the means of production (those things which enable the commercialization of creativity such as software, hardware, financial services and networks) are easily accessible by everyone. It is cheaper in real dollars (not opportunity cost of time spent) to set up a website than it is to get the average fast food dinner for two.

8

The modern corporatist system propagated itself unattended and almost without check, with the exception of the labor movements of the late 1800’s and 1900’s, which put a different but equally destructive system in play – that labor, like capital, is a value unto itself, regardless of how it is employed or the value it produces. Then things seemed to be turning around in the early 1980’s, when the advent of access to relatively cheap computing meant that an increasing number of companies competed in the realm of applying knowledge. Since knowledge was the unique province of the human being (as opposed to mechanical leverage, which was the domain of machines), people started to become more important than equipment. Then we moved to the place where knowledge was cheap and easy because of the interconnected capabilities of cheap computing resources. Competitive advantage started to go to companies that could commercialize creativity (the most common meaning behind the term “innovation”). As an increasing number of companies compete based on their ability to take human being’s ideas and turn them into consumable products and services, and as the infrastructure for commercializing those ideas becomes ever cheaper to access, utilize and extend, creativity becomes an ever increasing component of competitive advantage. In addition, as the excellent slideshow below demonstrates (a huge thank you to Gautam Ghosh for originally exhibiting this slideshow, whose wonderful blog covers many aspects of innovation can be found here), innovation is increasingly seen as part of process excellence and cost cutting.